Previewing And Predicting Tonight's Survivor 48 Finale

Survivor 48 concludes tonight with its three hour season finale. This season has been pretty hated by fans for the lack of blindsides and big moves, but I don't think it's been as terrible as some say. There's definitely been times where I've screamed at my TV over the lack of strategy, but I've found the characters to be pretty engaging. And even "bad Survivor" is still better than anything else on TV. 

We've got five castaways remaining. I'm going to rank them from who I think has the worst to best chance to win with a breakdown of their game so far. This isn't necessarily who I think will be the next voted out or last the longest, but just the best chance to actually win. 

5. Mitch

I like Mitch. He's a fun character. He's a nice guy. I met him at the premiere party and he was just downright lovely in person. But with all that being said, I don't think there's any chance he wins Survivor 48. He's been on the outside of the majority alliance since the merge and hasn't been the architect behind any big moves. He voted with Kyle and Kamilla last time to blindside Shauhin, but he doesn't get as much credit for the move as Kyle and Kamilla do. And while there's been some talk of Mitch being hard to beat at the end, I'm not sure I buy it and also think he has a very hard path to get there. Jeff has talked a lot about this being the "season of duos" so I really think our final four is going to be the two duos of Kyle, Kamilla, Joe, and Eva. And Mitch is on the outside of that so he's probably next up on the chopping block. I think Mitch will be first out tonight unless he wins immunity. 

4. Eva

Earlier in the season, I would've thought that if Eva was making the finale she would be a favorite to win. But that doesn't seem to be the narrative on the island. People in the last episode seemed to downplay her threat to win. I just assumed that with her story and the obstacles she's overcome, it would be malpractice to take her to the end because she'd win so easily. But I think Joe is seen as the more dominant player in their duo. And I think Kyle and Kamilla have a more impressive resume overall due to their secret alliance. She's got an uphill climb to win, but we do know she's basically guaranteed Final Four with her idol unless something crazy happens. My dream is to see a Joe vs. Eva Final Four fire making challenge. That would be the most emotionally intense fire challenge we've had in the history of the show, overtaking Tony vs. Sarah in Season 40. I ultimately think Eva will get to the Final 3 but then lose, although she may get a couple of votes from like Star and obviously Joe if he's on the jury. 

3. Kamilla

Kamilla has played one of the most unique games in recent Survivor history. She's been on the outside of the majority but has secretly been protected by Kyle and running the game with him. The issue is nobody knows that. She could definitely have a Maryanne type Final Tribal Council where she reveals this big secret and impresses everyone enough to win. But the issue for her is that if she's sitting next to Kyle doing that, I think the votes for them will be split and Kyle will get more. He'll get more credit for being the true "double agent" where he was in the majority alliance while also working with Kamilla on the side. And he seems to have better social relationships with people in the game. Kamilla's best chance to win is to be at the Final 3 without Kyle. Kyle can then be an advocate for her on the jury at Ponderosa. If she's next to Joe and Eva, I can see people being mad at them and voting for Kamilla with a good FTC performance. 

2. Joe

If Joe does end up winning, it'll be the biggest "Well duh" of all time. He's had one of the most overwhelming edits in quite some time. He's been Eva's rock, had emotional moments about his family, won four challenges, and is constantly talked about being a great guy who people want to work with. It's actually INSANE that he's made it this far. There have been multiple opportunities to take him out and the fact that nobody has is mind boggling. If he does end up steamrolling his way to the end and winning, it'll be one of the most dominant start to finish wins ever. He'll have taken a majority alliance to the end, won at least four challenges (he can break the record tonight), and has been one of the most impressive social players I've ever seen where it feels like he has whole the cast under a spell. But I personally don't think it's going to happen. It just feels too obvious. And we did see Joe have a misstep last week where he misread who the liar was between Kyle and Shauhin. I also think he could have a Coach/Hoboken Mike situation where he has a hard time owning his game at tribal. He's wanted to play this totally honest game, but he hasn't. He backstabbed David. And when David called him out before that for going back on his word, Joe had a near meltdown. I can see a situation where he gets to FTC and doesn't own his game and the jury ends up punishing him for it. Especially if Kyle/Kamilla can sit next to him and say "Here's how we played you to get Shauhin out." So I think he's got a good shot, but my gut says this season ends with Joe coming up short and not completing his hero arc.  

1. Kyle

I am borderline getting to a point where I'd be shocked if Kyle doesn't win tonight. I think he's definitely played the best game of all players so far. There's certainly been times where I've questions his decisions to not use Kamilla to turn on Joe and the rest of the majority alliance, but if he ends up winning then you can't criticize him for that. And I think he's going to. Him and Kamilla still have a good alliance with Joe and Eva after they tricked them into believing Shauhin was a traitor. So Mitch should be the easy vote. And if Mitch wins immunity, then Kyle can team up with Mitch and Kamilla to get rid of Joe (assuming Eva plays the idol on herself). I think Kyle wins the Final Four challenge, chooses Eva to sit next to him in the end, then Joe beats Kamilla at fire, giving us a final 3 of Kyle, Joe, and Eva. And if that's the case, I think Kamilla advocating for him to the jury and Kyle dropping at FTC all the secret plans he's had, along with his strong social game, will be enough to win him the game and a million dollars. The edit has also felt very Kyle heavy throughout the season. We've really seen the game through his eyes and he's been the narrator behind a lot of big moves. If he doesn't end up winning, he should kick himself over and over for never taking Joe and Eva out. But if he does win, then I think it would be under the radar one of the most impressive wins from a first time player in years. 

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So that's my official prediction for tonight. Mitch in 5th. Kamilla in 4th losing fire. Kyle, Eva, Joe Final 3 with Kyle winning. I'll say 6 votes for Kyle, 2 votes for Eva, and unthinkable Joe shutout after a miserable FTC performance. 

Hoping for at least some drama and action tonight to make up for a lackluster season. Tune in tonight after the episode at 11 PM ET for our Snuffing Torches recap of the finale.