Is Saquon Barkley Going To Break In 2025? A Formal Historical Break Down
We gather here today from varying perspectives. Eagles fans hoping for a Super Bowl repeat. Fantasy managers like myself wondering what to do with their high draft slot. And eight-year old German kids hoping they can scream over a microphone while scoring backwards jumping touchdowns all season.
Whatever walk of life brought you to concern yourself with one Saquon Barkley, sit down and take a gander at the graph above. We might be in trouble.
I pulled this list by filtering only running backs who carried the ball 400+ times a season on record. Playoffs included. I've seen other people do similar lookups with regular season carries only, but if the whole point is that the grueling nature of running the ball in the NFL wears down the body then I'm not sure how continuing to do this in the playoffs shouldn't be considered.
There is good news. The list isn't really as bad it might appear. 100 or 200 fewer yards after a 400+ carry season doesn't mean you weren't still good. That's just some good ole fashioned regression - that thing you always hear us stats losers blather on about. 400 carries is insane even for the all-time greats and unlikely to occur again even if there's no decline in performance. You're team was probably just super good and used you to run the clock out in the fourth quarter more than usual. And/or you made it all the way to the Super Bowl. Check, check for Saquon.
But the amount of backs that are 800 and even 1,000 yards below on that following year is not exactly comforting. But this doesn't mean Barkley is 100% doomed. Let's go on a little hunt and find some names above that show 2025 might not be the cliff many think it is.
Emmitt Smith (1992)
Did you know this dude took 300+ carries in 7/9 seasons at one span of his career? Nothing like the longevity of running behind that 90s Cowboys' offensive line. Smith was 23 when he ran it back after a 400+ season. Barkley will be 28. That's a big difference I do need to mention. Smith did take close to 350 carries at age 30, so maybe Saquon being the all-time great that he is can still put up numbers at 28.
Let's see if we can find someone who succeeded a little closer to Barkley's age…
Terrell Davis (1998)
My all-time favorite running back to watch. Too young to watch Marcus Allen in his prime or Walter at all. But Davis was 26 the year he IMPROVED on his 2,476 yards in 1997 with another 211 on top in 1998. This was AFTER carrying the ball 481 times in 1997. This is exactly what we need to focus on while blinding ourselves to the myriad of other data points. Some players are just built different leaving old-man time no match.
WARNING! Do not look at the last row on the graph.
Hang on now. Hang on. I think I found it. Yeah - I definitely found it. The true beacon of hope for Saquon Barkley.
Eddie George (2000)
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Our confirmation bias king. Eddie George. Get this - 428 carries of the football in the 1999 Super Bowl run that left the Titans one-yard short of keeping pace with the Greatest Show on Turf. He would score 12 on the ground and another four receiving. And at age 27, he would follow up 1999 with MORE carries in 2000. 430 total 403 of which came in the regular season. And he put 15 of those in the end zone.
This Buckeye was a DOG!
This is it. This is our standard. The wheels fell off a little in 2001, but Eddie George gives Barkley fans hope that this won't be the year he succumbs to the inevitable. Still came back strong in 2002 too.
Honorable mention to Curtis Martin. Dude was taking taking 300+ into his thirties and even broke 400 at age 31. That's insane. And yes, that led to his cliff fall in 2005 as shown in the graph. But 31 might as well be ten years older in running back years than 28.
I'm still in on Saquon. No clue why people doubted him last year going from the cluster of the Giants to the best O-line in the league as if that wasn't a completely different situation than most teams reasons for letting running backs go. I might be a stats guy, but I know when the numbers aren't being interpreted correctly.
They weren't in 2024. And I say they aren't in 2025 either. Wheels up on a plane taking off backwards this year for Saquon Barkley.