Despite All The New Positive Updates Surrounding Jayson Tatum's Recovery, The Celtics Should Still Hold Him Out For The Entire Season

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For a wide variety of reasons, the Boston Celtics enter the 2025-26 season in a position they haven't been in for a little over a decade. The last time something like this happened was 11 years ago, way back in the 2013-14 season. You may remember that as Year 1 of the Brad Stevens coaching era, which immediately followed the trade of Pierce and Garnett to the Brooklyn Nets. That was the initial stage of their "rebuild", and as fans, we entered that season with no real expectations outside of trying to secure as high a pick as possible. That team finished 25-57, ended up with the 6th pick (Marcus Smart), and after an Isaiah Thomas trade at the deadline in 2014-15, the entire Celts' rebuild was sped up. The good part of that rebuild was the fact that the post-Isaiah team could focus on winning and contention while they sat back and let the Nets do all the losing for them since they owned their first-round picks. Suddenly, Al Horford was coming to Boston, the Celts were winning in the high 40s/low 50s, and eventually, the Jays arrived. That's what made that rebuild so unique. Usually, as a rebuilding team, it's you who has to do the losing for a few years so you could accumulate that level of young talent. For those Celts teams, it was like they could have their cake and eat it too.

As we enter a similar type of season 11 years later, the context around it is very different this time around. There is no Brooklyn Nets trade out there where the Celts own 3 unprotected picks from a team that stinks. Given how expensive their roster currently is and all these new CBA aprons and penalties, it's crucial that Brad Stevens finds ways to add cheap playable talent, whether that's through the draft or through minimums in free agency. To find that "impact" player through the Draft, the team is going to have to find a way to land a pick higher than #28, which is currently the highest Brad Stevens has ever picked. 

How do you do that? 

For starters, you replace 5 of your top 8 with all unproven rookies/young players to limit your roster's ceiling. We all know Joe Mazzulla/Jaylen Brown/Derrick White/Payton Pritchard etc would never lose on purpose, which is why Brad Stevens basically took it upon himself to set his team up for a "reset" or "gap" year. No team in the NBA has a worse frontcourt situation this year than the Celtics, and the hits to the perimeter and depth are just as brutal. It's very obvious to anyone who is willing to be objective and tell the truth about this roster what Brad Stevens is doing. 10 of the 15 players from their title team are no longer on the roster, and that includes the best player!

It's about as clear a "soft tank" as you're ever going to see. You don't go full tank by unloading your core pieces because Tatum is coming back, but you set yourself up to maximize this "gap" year so you can give yourself the best possible chance of adding that young impact player for when Tatum comes back from injury.

Which brings us to the most important piece of this entire puzzle for 2025-26. Jayson Tatum's recovery/return.

“I’m no doctor, but I’ve seen guys coming back from Achilles’ tears, and he looked way ahead. I was kind of shocked to see how well he was moving. I have no idea for what any of this means for when he can come back. I’m sure him and the Celtics’ medical people have their program set up, and they’ll make sure that he’s where he needs to be when he does get back. But he looks great right now. Of course, he didn’t do any running or even jogging, but he was in great shape and he had no trouble doing his part at the camp.”

My immediate reaction after reading all that?

Something tells me it's going to be a battle all year long between my heart and my brain when it comes to the return timeline for Jayson Tatum. On the surface, an update like that is great news. It means he's progressing well, and perhaps getting that surgery so quickly after the injury is making a real difference. That rules. Anything that increases the chances that Jayson Tatum returns as the same guy or pretty damn close to it is something that makes me very happy.

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At the same time, it doesn't really change the fact that I still prefer Jayson Tatum to sit out the entire year. Even if he's 100% healthy at some point during the 2025-26 season, I'd prefer they wait until October 2026. While I think we all can't wait to watch him play again, I do think it's more important to keep the eye on the prize for what the 2025-26 season is truly about

1. See which young players currently on your roster can prove to be rotation players for the future

2. Lose as much as you reasonably can while still playing hard (soft tank)

That's it. That's really all that matters. This is a season of vibes, where for the first time in 11 years, the results in terms of wins really don't matter. That's what a gap year is. Play hard, and wherever the chips fall is where they fall.

When you think of it that way, I see no reason why Tatum should come back in 2025-26. Especially if it's late in the year, what's the point? I'm not sure I love the first taste of NBA basketball Tatum experiences after this injury being playoff basketball (if they are somewhere in contention for the Play In), and if it's a lost season based on everything that happened prior to his return, then why risk even a few extra wins? That could be the difference in where your ping pong balls end up, so the reward doesn't seem to outweigh the risk, at least to me. 

That's why I'm taking all of these positive Tatum updates as more of a sign that 2026-27 Tatum is going to be the version we all know and love, while also being terrified of what it could mean for 2025-26. Normally, when guys are coming back from an injury you want them on the court as soon as possible, but given the type of injury Tatum had and the circumstances around the team this upcoming season, I want the opposite. I want them to be overly cautious with Tatum's return/recovery while also doing what they can to position themselves as best they can to accumulate important assets that will be important for the next era of the Celtics roster.

So on one hand, I love hearing that Tatum looks to be recovering well and ahead of schedule. On the other hand, I am begging the team not to let that impact their decisions when it comes to this upcoming season. Embrace the soft tank, hold him out, and be ready to roll once we get to October 2026.