NFL 2025 Survivor Pool Journey - Mapping Out The Season And Your Week 1 Pick(s)

Stathole9/03/2025 3:00 PM

Welcome back NFL Survivor Pool waders! I'm back for 2025.

Let's make 2025 the year we go the distance. Last year was a blood bath from the start, yet I can at least say I made it through the first two weeks of hell in which Cincinnati went down in Week 1 vs the Patriots and the Ravens inexplicably lost to the Raiders at home in Week 2. Because when it comes to survivor pools, you can't pick the teams you think will definitely win right off the bat. You have to use a little game theory and loosely map out your season. Unfortunately, I got Nix'd by Bo in Week 3 in Tampa Bay. And that was that.

Well not this year. I'm officially investing in the max two entries in my league that totaled some $45,000 in entry fees last season. So as long as I'm in this, I'll keep blogging on it. My picks aren't due until Saturday night, but since many of you need them by Thursday, we'll run these blogs on Wednesday. I'm here for you. Until I'm out. Unless there's some intense demand for pick advice from a literal loser these blogs will be…

Giphy Images.

Alright - let's get to work and make sure that doesn't happen. As it turns out, Week 1 is very interesting already. But survival takes courage. And risk. Let's explore some potential plays before we get to the picks.

Broncos (-8) vs Titans

This one figures to be your leader in the "casuals" selection for the pure fact that it's the biggest spread of Week 1. But it also has the worst team from last season with a rookie quarterback. I ran some numbers and for all 30 overall #1 pick quarterbacks who played in their rookie Week 1, only eight won. But a lot of these were pre-merger. Only 4/18 (22.2%) won since 1970. That'd be Caleb Williams, David Carr, John Elway, and Jim Plunkett. So you could even say only 2/16 won in Week 1 when drafted by a team that actually earned that #1 overall pick (Carr and Plunkett).

The Broncos figure to have one of the league's top defenses with a quarterback who is very aware of this and plays conservatively. This is probably about as sure of a play as possible. But I do still see some risk here for Denver with Cam Ward. We don't know what this guy is yet. And we DO know plenty about how terrible their quarterback was last year in Will Levis.

I'm going to steer clear until I get more information on Cam Ward. Let the masses rush into this one. It'll likely be fine for them, but could easily be a Bengals situation last year too. The 10% ish chance over 50% of your league or more is out after Week 1 from one single game. Maybe more. I'll find out when I get my weekly roundup email.

Cardinals (-6.5) at Saints

This one might be too hard to lay off, although it will also be very popular. The Saints just absolutely stink. Lost their last four games of 2024 all with 2025 starting quarterback Spencer Rattler. This includes a duel we've already repressed forever in our minds against Aiden O'Connell.

Meanwhile - the Cardinals don't have much pizzaz themselves. I don't see many other opportunities to use them this year and I'm hoping the lackluster vibes they currently have sway the masses towards taking Denver. This one is a definite potential for Week 1. I don't love it. Which is kind of why I love it. This is the bizarre type of thinking that goes into Survivor picks.

Bengals (-6) at Browns

What I love about potentially picking the Bengals is that everyone that got absolutely crushed by them in Week 1 last year is staying as far away as possible. Like CMC drafters in 2025 which got me him on a hell of a bargain in the home auction league. But still - this team has all the fire power. Joe Burrow. Ja'Marr Chase. Tee Higgins. And back in orange and black - Trey Hendrickson.

Liabilities: Joe freaking Flacco on the other side. This guy is literally capable of anything. The Browns have dudes on defense and the Bengals might possibly have the worst defense in the history of football. Even with Hendrickson. By no means is this a sure thing.

Jaguars (-3) at Panthers

The Panthers won 2/3 to end 2024 and seemed to have revived Bryce Young's career in the process of ending the season. Meanwhile, the Jaguars lost 3/4 to end 2024. So I could actually see some liking the Panthers here if you're into wild risks in Week 1. I do sort of like Liam Coen being able to do more with the talent in Jacksonville. This one is tempting considering I'm probably not using the Jaguars any other week and I don't think many people will pick them with such a risky Week 1 spot. But I certainly don't love it. Which is why I don't love it.

Dolphins (+1.5) at Colts

What? PLUS 1.5? How on earth is Daniel Jones a favorite? Look - the way I have things mapped out, I need Miami later anyway, so I'm not really considering this one. But if I did, I'd be riding the Dolphins. I expect them to have that juice again with Tua despite the malaise reports coming out of Miami. Just might want to get that pick in the first few weeks…You know…

Steelers (-3) at Jets

I think I'm into this game as well. The Jet's have a new coach and a new quarterback. And it sure doesn't sound like Justin Fields is going to be slinging deep balls in this offense. Meanwhile, I can't help but think Aaron Rodgers, even at his age, is a better fit for what Pittsburgh wants to be. Protect the ball. Rely on defense. Except you have a guy that can sling it. And now you have DK Metcalf as well.

I went ahead and mapped out a preliminary plan for the season. Let's just say, it involves a lot of New Orleans Saints football so far. That's OK, New Orleans. Last year's preseason roadmap included a lot of Broncos, so maybe this means you'll make the playoffs too. Who knows? Maybe Spencer Rattler figures out he's really left-handed.

Let's get to the picks.

Entry #1: CARDINALS at Saints

I think this will be a popular pick, but maybe not as popular as you'd think with everything we talked about on Denver vs Tennessee. Who wants to bet on the Cardinals to keep them alive in the first week? I guess me, perhaps. Book it.

Entry #2: STEELERS (-3) at Jets

Another team I don't feel like I'll be able to use much later. Not that I don't think they'll be good. I just think this is the best game to be sure of a win. Both teams have new QBs, but one of them is a wily future Hall of Famer. The other is going to be trying to run on the Pittsburgh Steelers defense.