Jonathan Taylor Has a Real Chance to Be The NFL's First Non-QB MVP Since 2012
Winning the NFL's Most Valuable Player award is next to impossible as a running back nowadays. It's next to impossible if you play any position other than quarterback. The last non-QB to win NFL MVP was Adrian Peterson back in 2012. Before that, it was LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006. Unless you're a top 10 NFL running back of all-time, you pretty much don't stand a chance.
The NFL MVP has almost become more of a career achievement award these days. Take last year for example. The MVP came down to 3 people. Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Saquon Barkley. Obviously Saquon Barkley didn't stand a real chance, because he's a running back (even though he had nearly identical stats to Adrian Peterson's 2012 MVP season). And when it came to Josh Allen vs Lamar Jackson, if you look at the stats, Lamar Jackson had him beat in pretty much every category.
But Lamar Jackson won MVP the year prior. Josh Allen hadn't been awarded one yet. But Josh Allen has been an elite NFL QB for long enough that it would be ridiculous to look back on the history books and see that he had never won one. He deserves at least one MVP. So that's what the voters did.
I don't know if that's actually how voters think. Josh Allen also had a much worse team around him than Lamar last season. But that's my opinion on how MVP voters sometimes look at things. There's definitely something to it. They do it in the NBA as well. LeBron was undisputedly the most valuable player to his team for over a decade, but he only won the award 4 times.
I wish the NFL would consider running backs more as legitimate MVP contenders. Saquon Barkley became one of only 9 players in NFL history to have ever rushed for over 2,000 yards. But he was up against the two-headed monster that was Lamar Jackson, and an MVP-less Josh Allen. So in reality, he probably never really stood a chance.
This year, Colts running back Jonathan Taylor is right on pace (a little shy in yards, but crushing in TD's) with Saquon Barkley's 2024 season.
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Except Jonathan Taylor could be in a position that makes him more likely to be voted MVP than Saquon was last year. Partially because of who he plays for, and who his QB is. Jonathan Taylor plays with a less respected QB in Daniel Jones, who's in his first year with the Colts. Again, I don't think any of this should matter, but for the voters, even if it's subconsciously, I think it probably will. When voters (and fans in general) look at the Colts, they're more likely to see them as Jonathan Taylor's team than they ever were to see the Eagles as Saquon's team. Last year was Barkley's first year with the Eagles. Jalen Hurts had already established himself as their franchise quarterback. The Eagles were a complete team. Everyone saw them as a Super Bowl contender for the jump. But when you look at the Colts… as incredible as Daniel Jones is playing… Jonathan Taylor has been there longer. As great as Michael Pittman is, he's rarely mentioned in the same class of receivers as a guy like A.J. Brown. On paper, the Colts aren't necessarily loaded with star power. Jonathan Taylor probably is the one player on that ream who's widely considered to be a "star" .
For years now, Jonathan Taylor has established himself as the heart and soul of the Colts offense. If he rushes for over 2,000 yards, and blows Saquon Barkley's TD total out of the water (which he's on pace to do)… considering there are no MVP candidate QB's left who voters might see as "needing to win one"… he might have a real shot.
This is all a HUGE "if", but IF the Colts finish with the best record in the NFL, and Jonathan Taylor rushes for 2000+ yards and 20+ TD's as the undisputed leader of the #1 seed in the AFC… and on top of that, voters start thinking about how the NFL hasn't had a non-QB MVP in 12 years. If there were ever a reason for them to break that trend, a long-standing elite NFL running back in Jonathan Taylor gives them a pretty damn good excuse.
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Again, this is all incredibly hypothetical. Keep in mind, Saquon Barkley popped off even harder in the second half of last season than he did in the first. Taylor has a ton of work left to do. And right now, Patrick Mahomes is nearly even money to win MVP at +125. But there's absolutely a world where the Chiefs finish 12-5 and Mahomes doesn't put up MVP worthy stats. Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow are hurt. Would the NFL be willing give Josh Allen back-to-back MVP's? It's hard to imagine the Cowboys finish with a good enough record for Dak to win. Would the voters really be willing to give Drake Maye an MVP so early in his career? Baker Mayfield has fallen off a bit the last couple weeks. Maybe Matt Stafford, Jared Goff, Jalen Hurts, or Justin Herbert could get their first? Amongst all those names, if Jonathan Taylor is in the conversation, and there's not a slam dunk QB candidate, he might have a real chance. With the pace he's on right now, he's got as good of a shot as a running back can have.