It's The Best Horse Racing Weekend Of The Year! Breeders' Cup 2025 Friday With Mut
Donald Miralle. Getty Images.Happy Breeders' Cup Weekend!
If you’re a horse racing fan, then by now you already know it's the two biggest days of the year for racing. We get five Championship Races on Friday, and then nine more on Saturday, including the $7 million Breeders’ Cup Classic. Plenty of chances to be right on our racing opinions.
And that’s what you’ll find below: the opinions of a man who has, for better or worse, spent 20 years handicapping and betting on horse racing.
I wanted to create something that both novice and veteran horseplayers could use this weekend. This is what I came up with. Maybe Dave will hate it. I guess we'll find out together!
Dave and Elio will be betting on the Breeders’ Cup together, as they usually do. Me? I’ll be in the MutStack Racing Studios (my basement), betting the races on the DK Horse App, going live with you guys on X.com before each race, keeping track of Dave and Elio in the big Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge, and trying to find winners both days.
These are considered the best two days of the year because there are so many good horses, you're able to find some better prices than, say, on a Monday at Pax. Favorites will probably win four to six of the 14 Breeders' Cup races this weekend, and even when they do, we can still score.
If favorites win 10 or 11 of the races this weekend, I'll probably lose: I'm not here to bet all the favorites.
All the action takes place out at Del Mar. Friday’s five Breeders’ Cup races are below. You’ll see the race, including the time they run, the distance, surface, and some notes that I find interesting. After that, the listed favorite in the race, how I feel about the favorite, how I see the race, my pick for winner, and a price horse I like at longer odds, and then my three or four top picks.
You only have to be right a few times to score this weekend. Why not us?
RACE 6 - BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE TURF SPRINT
5F TURF / 5:45 PM EST
LAST FOUR WINNERS FROM EUROPE
DEL MAR TURF HAD BEEN PLAYING TO SPEED FOR YEARS IN THE FALL - LAST YEAR PLAYED TO CLOSERS. SOMETHING TO WATCH THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY?
FAVORITES 2 FOR 7 IN THIS RACE
THE MORNING LINE FAVORITE: #9 TRUE LOVE (7-2)
FEELINGS ON THE FAVORITE: A real win candidate here. Would not be a surprise, but in a wide-open race, it's tough to land on the shortest price.
THE RACE: Feels like one of the more wide-open races of the weekend. You have some talented horses from Europe squaring off against the best young sprinters from the USA—a bunch of legit win players.
THE CHOICE: At 6-1, I’ll tab #10 CY FAIR on top. This horse showed a sweet turn of foot last time winning at Keeneland. Trainer George Weaver gets Irad Ortiz to ride, and that is a strong signal. There seems to be plenty of pace for this one to be running at late.
PRICE IDEA: #5 Obliteration ran huge in the dirt…so why did he end up on the turf in his last two races? Trainer Steve Asmussen is sharp and gets Jose Ortiz to stick. Running style should fit well here.
THE PICKS: 10-8-9-5
RACE 7 - BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLY
1 1/16TH MAIN TRACK / 6:25 PM EST
FAVORITES 20 FOR 41 ALL-TIME
THE MORNING LINE FAVORITE: #7 EXPLORA (5-2)
FEELINGS ON THE FAVORITE: Has talent, but not sure what she’s beaten so far in California.
THE RACE: These are some of the horses we might see next year in the Kentucky Oaks. The group is lacking star power — at least going into the race.
THE CHOICE: #4 PERCY'S BAR (9-2)
This horse looked great in crossing the wire first last time at Keeneland, only to be taken down by the stewards. Came from off the pace two back, then was able to wire the field in last. Could get ignored at the windows thanks to the California horses.
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PRICE IDEA: They paid $2.5 million for #1 IRON ORCHARD (6-1). Has dominated in NY, and this is a big step up, but could sit nicely behind the other speed in here.
THE PICKS: 4-7-1-8
RCE 8 - BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLY TURF
ONE MILE TURF / 7:05 EST
MILE TURF RACES LAST YEAR BC - ALL THREE WINNERS MIDDLE/BACK IN THE PACK
#13 PRECISE 1-1 (BIG FAVORITE) IN EUROPE MARKETS
THE MORNING LINE FAVORITE: #13 PRECISE (6-5)
FEELINGS ON THE FAVORITE: A massive favorite in the Euro markets, but the #13 post is not good. Over the last 10 years, the outside posts in 13 and 14-horse fields going a mile at Del Mar are 0-28 with three second-place finishes: a talented horse but a tough post and a short price.
THE RACE: Precise drawing the outside might open this race up a bit. On paper, there's plenty of speed for a closer to come running late.
THE CHOICE: #9 TIME TO DREAM (5-1) is the closer I'll use. She had trouble in her last race and could have won with a cleaner trip. Gets a good pace set up here and can win at a fair price. Note that #7 CELEBRITY WARRIOR is owned by the same connections (Dave's friend Mike Reople) and that horse should help create a fast pace.
PRICE IDEA: #6 SWITCH IN LOVE (20-1) Complete wild card. Horse cost $1.2 million over in Japan. Ran second to a horse being pointed to big races there. Has the pedigree to be good, and reports from Del Mar have been touting this one. At a huge price, I will be using underneath and for a few bucks across the board. Huge wild card, but should be a monster price.
THE PICKS: 9-13-6-5
RACE 9 - BREEDERS' CUP JUVENILE
1 MILE AND A 16TH MAIN TRACK / 7:45 ET
FAVORITES 13 FOR 41; 1 FOR 3 AT DEL MAR
TRAINER BOB BAFFERT SIX WINNERS OF THIS RACE ALL-TIME
THE MORNING LINE FAVORITE: #8 TED NOFFEY (4-5)
FEELINGS ON THE FAVORITE: Of the five favorites in Breeders' Cup races Friday, this is the one I’m least trying to beat.
THE RACE: These are the horses we might see in next year's Kentucky Derby. TED NOFFEY should get a great trip off the speed to his inside. Has already won at this distanc,e and all three of his have come from outside posts. The biggest challenge probably comes from #7 BRANDT to his inside, but note that BRANDT has never won past seven furlongs.
THE CHOICE: #8 TED NOFFEY
PRICE IDEA: #1 INTERPIDO (6-1) kicked it into high gear last time, beating a big Bob Baffert favorite. Has a win at the distance, a win at Del Mar, and should save all the ground and make a move late to get into the exacta or trifecta.
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THE PICKS: 8-1-7
RACE 10- BREEDERS' CUP JUVENILE TURF
I MILE TURF / 8:25 PM EST
12 OF 18 FROM WINNERS FROM EUROPE
DEL MAR - WINNERS 3 FOR 3 FROM EUROPE
FAVES 4 FOR 18
GSTAAD BIG FAVORITE IN EUROBE
THE MORNING LINE FAVORITE: #14 GSTAAD (9-5)
FEELINGS ON THE FAVORITE: Super talented, terrible post. Over the last 10 years, the outside posts in 13 and 14-horse fields going a mile at Del Mar are 0-28 with three second-place finishes.
THE RACE: I was going to single GSTAAD in all my late multi-race bets, but I can't do it with that post. But so many others I like have questions. Can OUTFIELDER wire them? Why was GORDON PASS 52-1 last time? I like TURF STAR, but it seems a little slow. Don't love the posts for BOTTAS or HEY NAY NAY.
THE CHOICE: The contender I have the fewest questions about is #9 ARGOS (6-1). The only loss he has is on a wide trip. Last time was tight early, a little rank. Had to swing wide then hold off the big 8-5 favorite. I trust jockey Prat in spots like this. Like the rest of them, will need a trip.
PRICE IDEA: #6 NORTH COAST (30-1) - Horse has been pointed to this race for months. Reportedly wants firm turf and will get it in this spot. He's a half-brother to a good horse in Europe, Venetian Sun.
THE PICKS: 9-14-6-3
Looking forward to some great racing and hopefully some winners.
Good luck if you're playing, and save trips for all.
