It's The Best Horse Racing Weekend Of The Year! Breeders' Cup 2025 Saturday With Mut
I have never owned horses. And given my current and very public salary, and the fact that I have two kids I hope will end up in college, there's a 99.9% chance I never will. But I do like to bet on horses and occassionaly, I do win.
And from that betting standpoint, when it comes to hitting a big one, I'd probably agree with the nice woman in the video above. Well, forget the probably, she's 100% right.
With that in mind, let's try to find some winners on one of the best betting days of the year, Breeders' Cup Saturday. Remember, it only takes a few to make it a good day.
CY FAIR winning at 5-1 set a good tone for the weekend on Friday. Let's try to keep it going.
Again, I'm no expert, just a guy who has handicapped and bet on horses for 20 years. Below you’ll see the race, including the time they run, the distance, the surface, and some notes that I find interesting. After that, the listed favorite in the race, how I feel about the favorite, how I see the race, my pick for winner, and a price horse I like at longer odds, and then my three or four top picks. These are all at Del Mar.
Reminder - I'll be betting on DK Horse all day, and you should too—some great promos tomorrow. Don't miss out.
RACE 4 - BREEDERS' CUP FILLY AND MARE SPRINT
3 PM EST / 7 FURLONGS MAIN TRACK
DEL MAR = THREE LATE RUNNING BOMBS
LAST FOUR FALL MEETS AT DEL MAR - 26 7F RACES = 3 PACE; 9 2ND OR 3RD; 14 OFF THE PACE TYPES - CLOSERS DO WELL
FAVES FOUR OF LAST 6 (7 FOR 18 OVERALL)
THE MORNING LINE FAVORITE: #6 SWEET AZTECA (2-1)
FEELINGS ON THE FAVORITE: Eh. Tough pace scenario and short price. I'm interested in trying to beat the ML favorite here,
THE RACE: There is a bunch of early speed signed on here. Early speed has not done well at this distance here at Del Mar. I can see the battle up front taking a toll on the pace setters.
THE CHOICE: #4 TAMARA (7-2) has just one bad race on her resume, and in that one, she had trouble and went too quick early. The trainer opted to run a ‘better’ horse in a different race, and that signals confidence to me. Has run well at Del Mar and has a win at seven furlongs.
THE PRICE: #1 ZEITLOS (20-1) is the best and potentially ONLY closer on paper and could sneak into the top three at a huge price. Closers have done well at Del Mar going seven furlongs.
THE PICKS: 4-8-1-6
RACE 5 - BREEDERS’ CUP TURF SPRINT
3:41 PM EST / 5F TURF
FAVES 5 FOR 17
WINNERS CAME FROM OFF THE PACE AT THIS DISTANCE LAST YEAR
THE MORNING LINE FAVORITE: #1 MOROTIOUS (7-2)
FEELINGS ON THE FAVORITE: Legit player here. Should be flying late and seems to love both Del Mar and the distance.
THE RACE: Full disclosure - I struggle in these turf sprints. This won't be one of my bigger bets of the day.
THE CHOICE: If you draw a line through the last start for # 5 BRING THEBAND HOME, he might be favored. In that start, he broke in, got involved in a hot pace, and faltered late. Before that was in excellent form, winning back-to-back stakes at Saratoga. Last work at Belmont looks legit. Might be able to go right to the front and wire this group. At 12-1, I'm betting.
THE PRICE: #2 REEF RUNNER should not be ignored here. Has only been out of the trifecta once in 12 tries at this distance. Training very well.
THE PICKS: 5-1-2-14 (14 needs a scratch to get in, but could hit the board at a price)
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Dave is not in Del Mar; he's in Ohio for the Fox Big Noon Kickoff. But I wonder what he'd rate this pizza?
RACE 6 - BREEDERS’ CUP SPRINT
4:21 EST / 6F MAIN TRACK
TRIPLE-DIGIT BEYER HAS BEEN A MUST
BENTORNATO BIG FAVORITE COMING IN
FAVORITES 9 FOR 41
THE MORNING LINE FAVORITE: #10 BENTORNATO (5-2)
FEELINGS ON THE FAVORITE: Major win candidate. Lots of Del Mar buzz on this guy.
THE RACE: I think we'll see a mad scramble for the lead between #12 STRAIGHT NO CHASER and #13 MAD HOUSE. BENTORNATO is good enough to go with them or sit right off. Speed looked pretty good on Friday, so I would not want to be too far off here. There's a wild card…
THE CHOICE: #2 KOPION (7-2). This is a girl going against the boys, and she can win this. They might fire off from the rail and try to wire here. Or tuck in just off the speed. I LOVE horses cutting back from routes to sprints, and we get that here with one of the coolest horses in training. Rail is not awesome, but I love the trainer's confidence to run here against the boys.
THE PRICE: #5 BIG CITY LIGHTS (15-1) is trained by the same trainer as my top choice. Not sure what he beat in his last two, but loves Del Mar and the distance. Can win with multiple trips and seems fast enough. Can get in the Top 3 at a reasonable price.
THE PICKS: 1-3-5-11
RACE 7 - BREEDERS’ CUP DISTAFF
5:01 EST / MILE AND AN EIGHTH MAIN TRACK
FAVORITES 18 FOR 41
BAFFERT 10: 0-1-0 (has never won this)
SEISMIC BEAUTY = ALL SPEED
THE MORNING LINE FAVORITE: #8 SEISMIC BEAUTY (9-5)
FEELINGS ON THE FAVORITE: Legit. And might have a tactical advantage in this spot. Maybe.
THE RACE: IF SEISMIC BEAUTY gets a clear lead, she's gone. BUT…#6 ALICE VERITE has been all speed over in Japan. Her race last year here (same race), she broke slowly and was a non-factor. There's a real chance she battles the favorite up front on Saturday…if she can break clean.
THE CHOICE: After winning his first Breeders' Cup race as a trainer Friday, I like George Weaver's #12 DORTH VADER (5-1) today. This horse had some issues last time vs Thorpedo Anna and was still coming. No Anna today, and she has a win at the distance. Johnny V will have to save ground into that first turn, but could sit and make a first run on the deep closers.
PRICE IDEA: #4 SCYLLA had a slow start last time, yet still managed third. Can sit in that second flight and hit the board.
THE PICKS: 12-4-1-8
RACE 8 - BREEDERS’ CUP TURF
5:41 EST / MILE AND A HALF ON THE TURF
21 OF LAST 26 FROM EUROPE
EUROS LOOK VERY STRONG THIS YEAR
THE MORNING LINE FAVORITE: # 8 MINNIE HAUK (8-5)
FEELINGS ON THE FAVORITE: The big favorite over in Europe, where you can bet on the race days and weeks before the event. A very good win chance here, and I won't spend much time trying to beat her or REBEL'S ROMANCE.
THE RACE: The two most likely from Europe…just look better than the rest. European turfers > American turfers. I won't overthink this.
THE CHOICE: #1 REBELS' ROMANCE (5-2)
PRICE IDEA: #4 RESDISTRICTING (15-1) is in career form for Chad Brown. Quick enough to lead them a long way and might be able to hold second or third at a price.
THE PICKS: 1-8-4-10
RAC E 9 - BREEDERS' CUP CLASSIC
6:25 EST - MILE AND A QUARTER MAIN TRACK
LOTS OF LAYOFFS - THAT HAS BEEN OKAY IN THIS RACE
LAST 11 YEARS AT DEL MAR - 14 OF THE 17 RACES HAVE BEEN WON BY HORSES POSITIONED IN THE TOP THREE (SIERRA LEONE BROKE THE MOLD LAST YEAR)
RABBIT ENTERED FOR SIERRA LEONE
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THE MORNING LINE FAVORITE: #1 FIERCENESS (5-2)
FEELINGS ON THE FAVORITE: Fierceness inherits the role of favorite after the scratch of Sovereignty. Did a deep dive on this race at MutStack.com
THE RACE: #4 CONTRARY THINKING is in here as a rabbit to make sure the pace is fast. #5 FOREVER YOUNG will be right there, too. I see enough pace where #1 FIERCENESS grabs the lead at the top of the stretch before the closers come calling.
THE CHOICE: #7 SIERRA LEONE (7-2) won this race last year and at this price, I'll bet him again. He's the closer I want late to run down FIERCENESS. He trains well, has his rabbit, and will likely be the third choice in the betting. Boring? Yep. But he runs by them all late to win his second straight classic.
PRICE IDEA: #5 JOURNALISM (5-1). I think this guy is sitting on a HUGE race and will hit the board. Will be keying in the trifecta off big workouts and a terrific campaign. Do not ignore.
THE PICKS: 7-9-1-5
RACE 10 - BREEDERS' CUP MILE
7:05 EST / MILE ON THE TURF
FAVORITES 14 OF 41 EUROPE FIVE OF THE LAST SEVEN
NO REAL PACE SIGNED ON + RHETORICAL
THE MORNING LINE FAVORITE: #2 NOTABLE SPEECH (5-2)
FEELINGS ON THE FAVORITE: Just missed in this race a year ago, and reports have him doing better now than in 2024. Big shot here.
THE RACE: Not much speed in here, and someone might be able to steal this.
THE CHOICE: #11 RHETORICAL (5-1) is my choice to do just that. Quick enough to get to the front and take them all the way at a fair price.
PRICE IDEA: #7 JOHANNES (8-1) ran well in this race last year. Now third off the layoff and running as well as a year ago, has five wins at a mile. Respect.
THE PICKS: 11-2-7-10
The CAWs were an issue on Friday. Hopefully, it won't be as bad on Saturday.
RACE 11 - BREEDERS' CUP DIRT MILE
7:45 EST / MILE ON THE MAIN TRACK
THE MORNING LINE FAVORITE: #3 NYSOS (8-5)
FEELINGS ON THE FAVORITE: A huge question mark. The “good” NYSOS would trounce these. But he’s been off since July and had to scratch from a race in August with an injury.
THE RACE: Two or three of these (GOAL ORIENTED, FULL SERRANO, CITIZEN BULL) are battling on the front end. Does one of them clear, or will it set up for a horse from off the pace?
THE CHOICE: I feel like a weasal chalking out here, but #3 NYSOS for me. Just too good for these on his best day. Loves Del Mar and training big.
PRICE IDEA: This race goes through trainer Bob Baffert. If not NYSOS, #7 CITIZEN BULL looms large. Another who loves Del Mar and the Mile. Camp Baffert has always liked this guy.
THE PICKS: 3-7-4-6
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RACE 12 - BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY AND MARE TURF
8:25 PM / MILE AND THREE EIGHTS ON THE TURF
A RACE FOR AN UPSET - FAVES JUST 6 OF 26
1 FOR LAST 11
SEVEN OF THE LAST NINE FROM EUROPE OR JAPAN
THE MORNING LINE FAVORITE: #5 GEZORA (7-2)
FEELINGS ON THE FAVORITE: Of all the European shippers, I’m most likely to take the biggest stand against this one. Did no running last time in the Arc and has never raced around left-hand turns (they have right-hand turns and mostly straight courses in Europe).
THE RACE: Wide open. As many as six of them are win candidates, as I see it. Will be casting a wide net in the Late Pick 5 and Pick 4.
THE CHOICE: #6 DIAMOND RAIN (6-1) Has had an excellent year with two wins and a second. The second came in the prep for this race, where she broke slowly and came running late, just missing. With that prep, set up for a significant effort here.
PRICE IDEA: There's a world where #2 STELLIFY (30-1) wires this group. I don't think it's very likely, but 30-1 is way too big a price for a horse with this talent.
THE PICKS: Again, I'm going to spread here late and hopefully be alive to a bunch in the late multis
6-9-14-2 (5, 14 as defense on deeper tickets)
Okay, that's enough handicapping for today. See you on X.com on Saturday, and good luck if you're playing.
Safe trips for all. 🏇🏻🏇🏻🏇🏻
