Sizing Up Survivor 49 As We Hit The Merge
*SPOILERS OBVIOUSLY AHEAD*
We've officially hit the merge in Survivor 49 and it started with a bang. After a somewhat pedestrian pre-merge, we had a true blindside and change in the game last night. Instead of the old Uli tribe (Nate, Rizo, Savannah, Jawan, Sage) and their adopted member Sophi (now just known as Soph) steamrolling through the game with their numbers, we saw Jawan and Sage flip and blindside Nate. And now we have a whole new ballgame.
Some thoughts on where the game stands now with 10 people left
-This was a great move from Jawan and Sage. Perhaps they could've waited another week or two, but they had the chance now and they took it. I've been saying for awhile that Jawan needs to wake up and realize he's on the bottom of old Uli and he did that with this move.
-Savannah showed some serious flaws to her game in this episode. Stalking MC during the key hunt saga was just terrible social gameplay. And it's clear that's her weakness. Sage has said as much that she doesn't feel like she has a real relationship with Savannah outside of just being her number.
-I think this episode proves how much social game matters. Relationships trump numbers 99% of the time. Jawan and Sage could've stuck with the "numbers" of their old tribe. But Steven actually made the effort to connect with them at the tribe swap and did it so effectively that he convinced them to join his old tribe.
-I thought it was smart for Soph to not use the Knowledge Is Power yet. Sure she could've easily got MC's idol but then she would've looked untrustworthy to her alliance and put a big target on her back. She still knows that Rizo has one in case she needs it in an emergency. And there's always a chance she's well connected enough to find out who finds the replanted one.
-Glad we finally ended Sophiegate. So now yellow Sophie is Sophie and the Sophi we've seen way more of is Soph. Just need one of them gone to make life easier.
Winner Rankings
This is a ranking of who I think is most likely to win. The person in last shouldn't be viewed as next to go. Just least likely to win.
10. Kristina - Just haven't seen enough of her in the edit. And does not seem like she's a power player in the game by any means.
9. Sophie - Ditto for what I said about Kristina.
8. Sage - She has quietly pulled off the two biggest moves of the season the past two weeks. But I still think she could get the Carolyn treatment where people have a hard time taking her seriously in the game even if she deserves to be. I also think her constantly voting just based on spite and hate may catch up to her eventually.
7. MC - I think she's just too good for her own good. She's such a huge physical challenge threat that I think everyone will eventually target her for that and for being just likable. Nobody will want to sit next to her at the end.
6. Alex - He's in a good spot in the game but I just feel like he hasn't been the narrator of the season like a winner usually is. Like last night for example, we didn't see that vote through his eyes at all. I just feel like if he was the winner he would've been more of a narrator of that vote.
5. Jawan - Nobody had a bigger stock rise last night than Jawan. I still don't think he'll win because he may have made too enemies now and I think his new alliance may cut him when the time comes. But he's playing the game real well right now.
4. Savannah - And nobody had a bigger stock fall last night than Savannah. She showed how weak her social game is and now is on the outside of the majority. But I think she's scrappy and savvy enough to pull something off to last a bit longer as I doubt we have a true Pagoning.
3. Rizo - Smart of him to keep his idol last night. He's definitely a target now and on the outside. But having an idol and strong allies keep his chances alive.
2. Sophi - You can argue nobody is in a better spot than Sophi. She seemingly has no enemies and isn't a target at all. She's also got the Knowledge Is Power advantage. She's perfectly playing the middle and adapting to stay alive. You have to love her chances.
1. Steven - He's been my winner pick since the beginning and I see no reason to change it now. He's got a great social game as evidenced by the Bottoms Up alliance working last night. And now he's seemingly in a majority. Feeling real good about my pick right now.
Excited for the rest of the season now that the game has officially begin. Catch up on Snuffin Torches everywhere HERE.
