The Celtics Are Living Proof That In The NBA, You're Only As Good As Your Weakest Link

Rich Storry. Getty Images.

While it's certainly fun to see the Celts play well and blow out a team like the Wizards, I think anyone with a brain understands there's a massive difference between doing something against a team like the Wizards and then doing it against basically any other team in the NBA, especially one with a pulse.

It was a much needed breath of fresh air considering what happened the game before against the Jazz, but when you want to really get a guage of how the 2025-26 Celts stack up, I prefer to look at how they are performing against teams that aren't at the bottom of the league.

When you do that, you see things are unfolding pretty much how anyone who was objective and honest about the team/roster told you they would as we entered the season.

In the Celts 10 games to start the year, 6 of them have come against teams .500 or better (DET, CLE, HOU, NYK, PHI, PHI). In those games, they are 2-4. In the case of the Magic last night, technically they are under .500 (4-5), but I think most would agree that they are a playoff caliber team, so really, if someone wanted to suggest the Celts are 2-5 against "good" teams, I don't think that would be the wrong way to look at it.

And just like myself and others have been screaming for years, this is not a playstyle issue (3P volume). In fact, in their 6 losses, just 47% of their FGA have been 3s. In those 5 losses to good teams, they took more 2s than 3s in 4 of them.

What we're seeing, is the roster issue that anyone with eyes told you was going to happen. This is not a coaching or a style issue, it's a talent issue. Just look at their season so far. When they play bad teams (NO, WSH) things look a certain way. When they play good teams (everyone else), it's very clear how much of a talent gap they have compared to any sort of playoff-caliber opponent. It's why through 10 games things look like this

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Which in any other type of season would have me ready to jump off the Zakim Bridge. 

Fortunately for my mental health, we're living in a world where these losses don't hurt you, and in some ways actually help. It's fucked up, and my brain is still struggling with that reality at times when I find myself feeling very annoyed immediately after a loss like we saw last night, but that's just because to my core, I am disgusted by bad basketball. Even knowing the big picture and all that, it still bothers the hell out of me to watch in the moment. Maybe that'll get easier as this season goes on, but bad basketball is bad basketball, and that'll never truly sit well with me. 

So far, I'd say the season is unfolding just like I thought it would. The Celts play hard as shit at all times. The effort has been there every night. They are competitive, and on games where their shots are dropping they can hang with and beat anyone. But ultimately, their flaws are too great to overcome. Eventually, the talent issue will rear it's head, and you're going to lose, especially to good, playoff caliber teams. Through 10 games, that's pretty much exactly what's happened.

Against PHI/CLE in those wins, they took high volume 3PA, made shots, and won. In their losses, you see what having the worst frontcourt in the NBA does to you, combined with their other offensive limitations given the roster available. It is what it is really. Perhaps those who were unwilling to see or accept this reality are now starting to understand what happens when you lose Tatum, you lose 3 7fters, and you replace all of those spots with unproven young guys and no frontcourt. None of this should be a surprise. 

So in the end, we're left in this weird limbo. Every night we're getting encouraging signs from young players which is VERY important to the future of the roster. At the same time, we're seeing the Celtics lose games they really have no business losing, all going back to the problem areas that existed as soon as the roster was finalized. Honestly, even though it's only been 10 games, it's a bit of a mindfuck.

With that said, let's talk about what happened against the Magic.

The Good

- It's a bit of a shame we're getting some of the best basketball of Jaylen Brown's career at a time when the roster was built to struggle. But when it comes to Jaylen assuming that lead role as both a scorer and a leader, he's been fantastic. To argue otherwise would be objectively insane

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Aside from his super efficient scoring, we're also seeing Jaylen start to get his TO issue under control, bringing his average down to 3.3 so far in November. He's now scored 30 in 3 quarters in back to back games, and hit at least 30 points in 3 straight games and 5 of his last 6. What's impressive is he's doing all that while not even hitting 3s (3-21 in November) and last night's 32 came with just 1 3PM and only 2 FTA.

When it comes to the FTA, I'd say Jaylen is experiencing both the Jayson Tatum whistle (just 2 FTA on 15 drives last night), while also dealing with clear retaliation from the officials, given what Jaylen rightfully called out as bullshit after the Jazz blown call (the NBA agreed and admitted the refs blew it)

It's a bit fucked that in a season in which Jaylen has been as aggressive as ever, and has been living in the paint more than ever, his FTA remains unchanged. At the same time, we're seeing guys all over the league live at the FT line. Not a huge math guy, but I'm not sure that adds up. 

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Aside from the FT bullshit, we're seeing Jaylen shoot 82.9% (!!!!!!!!!) at the rim (4.1 FGA), 50.0% from midrange (!!!!) on 5.8 FGA and 37.5% on 5.6 above the break 3PAs. That my friends, is what you call elite 3-level scoring. 

He's certainly doing his part in this new role, and it'd be nice if his teammates ya know….helped him out.

- We've now had back-to-back games of Jordan Walsh making a real positive impact in his minutes. Let me say that again for those in the back.

We've now had back-to-back games of Jordan Walsh making a real positive impact in his minutes. Let me say that again for those in the back.

This may not seem like a big deal to the outside world, but for us? It's potentially a somewhat big deal. Remember, part of this season is seeing which young guys sink or swim with their opportunities. So far, Minott and Hugo have done great. With Walsh, it took a little time for him to get his chance, but now that he's gotten it, he's truly been awesome. That's certainly a welcomed sight

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Walsh finished a +7 in his minutes, was once again a force on the glass (6 rebounds) which is pretty fucking important on a roster like this, and it was undeniable that his effort and energy are what helped the Celts flip this game and get back into it after a brutal start had them down 12 early. 

Again, we're just looking at the competition for 10-15 minutes a night. It's basically a battle between Walsh and Baylor for that spot, and even though it's just been 2 games, I don't see how anyone could argue Walsh hasn't been more impactful in his minutes. Given the need for cheap young talent moving forward, I'm just saying this is worth keeping an eye on. We've waited like 3 years to see what Walsh can do with consistent run, and so far the early returns look pretty damn good.

I don't think it's crazy to suggest that in the same way Minott and Hugo have forced their way into the rotation, it feels like we're starting to see Walsh do the same. 

- It shouldn't be overlooked that Minott, Hugo, and Walsh were all mostly positives in a game against a playoff caliber opponent. Those are the 3 young guys who need to be hits. Hugo finished +9 with 6 rebounds and a heavy dose of chaos in terms of crashing the offensive glass, Walsh we just talked about. Even though he had arguably the worst turnover you could ever have at the worst possible time, Josh Minott was still effective with 12/8 on 4-7 (2-4).

The point is, we're starting to get real flashes from these young players against teams that are not named the New Orleans Pelicans or the Washington Wizards. That should not be overlooked or ignored. 

- It's starting to feel like Payton Pritchard is finally getting out of his slump.

He finished 8-16 (5-8) in his 31 minutes, and really the only part of Payton's season so far that has been less than ideal was his outside shooting. Everything else? Pretty much exactly what you need out of the starting point guard role. 

After his slow start, Payton is now shooting 44% from deep over his last 3 games (11-25), which certainly feels much more like the norm after being statistically the worst 3pt shooter to start the season. This is why I never really understood all the crying about 3s and his role. The Celts are 27th in 3P% because guys like Payton, a career 40% guy, was off to a brutal start. As it turns out, he's still a really good shooter! Who could have possibly seen this coming! 

Giphy Images.

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- He still can't hit a shot to save his life, but I did enjoy Derrick White's 10 assists and 1 TO in his 37 minutes, The defense was solid as well, so I'm choosing to focus on the positives at the moment. Just like with Payton, his shot will come around. We're talking about open and wide open looks here, all shots that we've seen Derrick consistently make for 4 years. He didn't just forget how to shoot.

If anything, this is just a replica of his Dec/Jan slump last year, where he went about 8 games shooting 32/25%. Slumps happen, but I do appreciate DWhite finding other ways to impact the game. The Basketball Gods will reward that, it's coming.

The Bad

- Just as Payton Pritchard is climbing out of his slump, I'm afraid we're also seeing Sam Hauser enter his. Another 1-6 (1-5) for Hauser in his 20 minutes off the bench, he's now just 3 for his last 19 from deep. Again, this is a lifetime 40% shooter so it's not a time to panic, but I can't sit here and tell you he's been good.

His role is to make wide open shots, play defense, and rebound. There is no longer the additional firepower on the roster for Hauser to just never make an open shot. That's not going to work.

The defense, that's been fine. It hasn't blown my dick off, but it's fine. The rebounding, brutal. Hauser at the 4 is getting destroyed in pretty much every lineup when it comes to his defensive rebounding, He finished with just 2 rebounds in 20 minutes, which is not good! Time and time again, we see him lose battles just like this

If it's not obvious by now, what you're looking at in those pictures is the roster construction issue. 

- I just do not know what to make of Anfernee Simons. For 95% of the game, he was dogshit. In the 4th quarter, he made several massive buckets. I'm not sure what I expected heading into the season, but overall I've been "meh" to "ew" when it comes to Simons' minutes. 

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I want to be gracious and give him time to learn a new situation and a new system and all that, but watching him play you can see his game is inherently flawed. I'm not sure how much of this is a comfort thing and how much of it is this is just who he is thing. When he's hot and can take a standstill C&S 3PA, I love him. Those are automatic.

When he's tasked with doing literally anything else on either end of the floor, it's been brutal. Even with his 4th quarter explosion last night, he finished a -14 in his 17 minutes. He can't stop fouling on the defensive end, and there's been no real signs of any sort of positive playmaking on the other end. Sorry if this comes off as too harsh, but it's what my eyes are seeing.

- The Celts once again lost another game this season in which they made more FGM than their opponent. How could this be? Well, in part because they were doing the #1 thing you cannot do in 2025.

They traded 2s for 3s.

In every one of these losses they've had this season (I think this is now #4), they lost the 3pt math. In this game, it was 17-13. While the Magic were coming down and knocking down 3s, the Celts responded by coming down and making 2s. That, is not a winning formula. Perhaps now people will understand, but probably not.

The other reason? This team cannot defend without fouling. They just can't do it. They rank at the bottom of the league in fouls, and last night was another huge FTA discrepancy (31-16). They played nearly an entire 4th quarter in the bonus, which translated to 14 FTA for the Magic.

So just add it all up. You're -12 in terms of the 3pt math, and -13 in the FT math. When that happens, it doesn't matter that you are great from 2pt and make more FGM than your opponent. The margins are the difference, and the Celtics were basically Mazzulla Ball'd. They are losing games by playing the way they usually make their opponents play. Trade 2s for 3s and limit FTA. 

Don't worry though, all you'll hear when it comes to this is the Celts do nothing but jack 3s and their volume is why they are losing. Meanwhile, it's been the exact opposite.

The Ugly

- You are watching what happens when you employ the worst frontcourt in the NBA. And when I say that, I am not talking about Neemias Queta. He's been legitimately awesome. He's a backup center who has been thrown into being a starter, and while he's not perfect and he has his own issues at times, overall he has not been the frontcourt problem. If anything, he's been the lone bright spot.

The issue, is what happens when he goes to the bench. I don't want to be mean, but this is about as bad as it gets

I'm not even really joking when I say the Celtics have one playable big man. One. Luka Garza tries hard, but it's been a disaster. I'm not sure how this is possible, but every time he checks in, it's like he's a vortex of bad outcomes. He finished with 0 rebounds in 13 minutes, which is so bad it's actually impressive. When he fouls, it's never just a foul. It's ALWAYS an AND1 foul. I don't understand, it's like whatever the worst possible outcome could be in a play involving Garza, that's what happens. Every single time.

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And it's not for a lack of effort. The dude clearly plays hard as hell. The point is, this is a talent issue. 

This is what I never understood when people looked at this roster and then predicted wins in the mid to high 40s. You cannot win in the NBA with the worst frontcourt in the league. No team does that, so why would things be different here? Especially with everything else that comes with this roster? It never made sense to me, and it's no surprise that pretty much all of their losses so far this season all point back to frontcourt issues. 

The unfortunate news is there's no solution. The talent is the talent. The flaws are the flaws. Brad Stevens knew what he was doing.

- It was at this moment that the game started to flip, and while I've loved 99.9% of the Josh Minott experience, this is a turnover you just cannot make

Between that play and then Queta's smoked bunny and foul in the backcourt while in the bonus, these are the mental mistakes that the Celts just don't have the margin of error to make. It was a night of self-inflicted wounds all game, whether it was the 19 2nd chance points, 22 points allowed off TOs, or the late game mental mistakes. You do that shit against a good playoff caliber team, and this is what happens.

These two teams face off again tomorrow, so it'll be interesting to see what type of response the Celts can have. This was another winnable game they let slip, but not because they shot 3PAs. It slipped because of problems we've known about from the start of the season, and I'm not sure those are going away anytime soon.